On the expectations view of the term structure, term premia and survey-based expectations

摘要: In this paper UK disaggregate survey data of expected future interest rates are used to test the expectations model the term structure at short end maturity spectrum. In aggregate, expectations is rejected, and both time-varying premia and expected rate changes demonstrated be important in explaining slope yield curve. Within aggregate data, however, we demonstrate that there some differences with respect views held. For example, for individuals pure expectations cannot rejected.