Macroeconomic Effects of EU Enlargement for Old and New Members

摘要: Recalculating the macroeconomic effects of EU enlargement based on a global model ("Oxford Economic Forecasting") has found that this step towards integration will produce win-win situation for both sides (CEECs and EU). In view difference in importance between markets (the sells only 5 percent its total exports to CEEC 10, whereas two-thirds 10 flow into EU), dimensions two blocks have GDP just 15), gains CEECs be tenfold those general. Hungary Poland may able boost their real by some 8 9 within ten years enlargement, which translates an additional annual economic growth 1 percent. The Czech Republic is likely profit at slightly lower level (5 6 years). can raise about 0.5 six (2005–2010), or less than 0.1 percentage point per year. Countries already close trading ties with (such as Austria, Germany Italy) win more average. (cumulated) pushed up ¾ point, 0.15 For countries, cost exceed benefits: applies particular Spain, Portugal Denmark. Considering three explicitly studied report (Poland, Republic, Hungary) make absolute calculated case – rule thumb raised third east west. But must not seen "job generation machine". If single market should lead productivity shocks intense competition, employment expected slow down temporarily. was underlying assumption no transition rules adopted restrict free movement labour. such introduced (which Austria), immigration surplus computed study would correspondingly lower.