Ensemble projections for wine production in the Douro Valley of Portugal

摘要: Wine production is largely governed by atmospheric conditions, such as air temperature and precipitation, together with soil management viticultural/enological practices. Therefore, anthropogenic climate change likely to have important impacts on the winemaking sector worldwide. An region Portuguese Douro Valley, which known its world-famous Port Wine. The identification of robust relationships between factors wine parameters great relevance for region. A multivariate linear regression analysis a long series (1932–2010) reveals that high rainfall cool temperatures during budburst, shoot inflorescence development (February-March) warm flowering berry (May) are generally favourable production. probabilities occurrence three categories (low, normal high) also modelled using multinomial logistic regression. Results show both statistical models valuable tools predicting in given year lead time 3–4 months prior harvest. These applied an ensemble 16 regional model experiments following SRES A1B scenario estimate possible future changes. projected increase about 10 % end 21st century, while years expected from 25 over 60 %. Nevertheless, further will be needed include other aspects may shape future. In particular, rising heat stress and/or changes ripening conditions could limit decades.