Prediction, Assessment of the Rift Valley Fever Activity in East and Southern Africa 2006–2008 and Possible Vector Control Strategies
作者： Assaf Anyamba , Rosemary Sang , Patrick M. Nguku , Seth C. Britch , Jean-Marc Reynes
DOI: 10.4269/AJTMH.2010.09-0289
关键词: Rift Valley fever 、 Vector (epidemiology) 、 Epizootic 、 Livestock 、 Outbreak 、 El Niño 、 Habitat 、 Physical geography 、 Geography 、 Vegetation
摘要: Historical outbreaks of Rift Valley fever (RVF) since the early 1950s have been associated with cyclical patterns El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon, which results in elevated and widespread rainfall over RVF endemic areas Africa. Using satellite measurements global regional sea surface temperatures, rainfall, derived-normalized difference vegetation index data, we predicted lead times 2-4 months where humans animals were expected occurred Horn Africa, Sudan, Southern Africa at different time periods from September 2006 to March 2008. Predictions confirmed by entomological field investigations virus activity reported cases human livestock populations. This represents first series prospective predictions provides a baseline for improved warning, control, response planning, mitigation into future.
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