Requisite Decision Modelling: A Case Study

摘要: This case study in decision analysis concerns a company that had to decide between continuing manufacture an old product might the near future by banned government or introducing improved but conventional would beat ban lose market share competing products using microchip technology. A tree with three attributes describing consequences over ten-year horizon modelled problem. Implementation on micro computer facilitated extensive sensitivity analyses, final round of which were conducted Board Directors. More and more pessimistic assumptions made until switched from new product; at point no Director believed all assumptions. Thus, agreement was reached about even though Directors disagreed uncertainties. The illustrates ‘requisite’ rather than optimal modelling shows essential roles problem structure analysis.