Benign or disordered development? Assessment and simulation of security of highly aggregated tourist crowds in China.

摘要: Arising with increasing security issues in highly aggregated tourist crowds (HATCs), widespread attention has been dedicated to status. Assessing and forecasting the status of HATCs various situations related destinations is an important strategy management. Thus, this study constructed a system dynamic flow diagram for evaluation HATCs. The relevant data were collected on perceptions crowded tourists through questionnaires at Tianyou Peak during China's National Day (Golden Week Holiday). Additionally, efforts made conduct online surveys Shanghai Disney Park Shilin Night Market Taipei, since crowding always occurs these two areas. Empirical results based Vensim software suggest that HATC result coupling influencing factors benign three subsystems: multi-source pressure, state variation, management response. presents changing trend “increase-decrease-recovery”. Differences exist changes different spaces time nodes. findings also indicated appear daytime are more stable than special This highlighted should focus systematization, differentiation, precision