Predictability of state-level flood damage in the conterminous United States: the role of hazard, exposure and vulnerability.
作者： Qianqian Zhou , Guoyong Leng , Leyang Feng
DOI: 10.1038/S41598-017-05773-4
关键词: Predictability 、 Environmental science 、 Natural hazard 、 Hazard 、 Physical geography 、 Climate change 、 Vulnerability 、 Flood myth 、 Population 、 Surface runoff
摘要: Understanding historical changes in flood damage and the underlying mechanisms is critical for predicting future better adaptations. In this study, a detailed assessment of 1950–1999 conducted at state level conterminous United States (CONUS). Geospatial datasets on possible influencing factors are then developed by synthesizing natural hazards, population, wealth, cropland urban area to explore relations with damage. A considerable increase CONUS recorded study period which well correlated hazards. Comparably, runoff indexed hazards simulated Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model can explain larger portion variations than precipitation 84% states. Cropland identified as an important factor contributing increased central US while urbanland exhibits positive negative total per unit wealth 20 16 states, respectively. Overall, 34 out 48 investigated states be predicted 90% confidence level. extreme cases, ~76% explained some highlighting potential prediction based climate change socioeconomic scenarios.
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