Coastal flooding: A copula based approach for estimating the joint probability of water levels and waves

摘要: Abstract An accurate joint probability assessment of water levels and waves is primary importance for effective coastal flooding management even in microtidal environments subjected to severe storm surge events. A copula based approach presented modeling the distribution derived from almost six years sea at a site suffering flooding. The evaluation upper tail dependence coefficient represents an unavoidable step selection process since it provides indications on extreme that cannot be neglected reliably estimate marine inundation. Based results various statistical tests estimation coefficient, one-parameter value selected model structure events representing conditions peak levels, including wave height, incoming direction season occurrence. obtained subsequently used reliability analysis. particular simplified application case described Ravenna coast (Italy) failure/inundation estimated through direct integration method. Since failure function employed involves runup depending period, height period also assessed. study highlights taking into account all variables involved phenomenon reliable flood estimate. methodology can applied sites risk inundation due combined impact levels.