Integration of socio-economic and environmental variables for modelling long-term fire danger in Southern Europe

摘要: In Mediterranean forests fire danger assessment is of crucial importance for any prevention policy, both at the local and global scale. The objective this study to model large scale structural forest in Southern Europe. This was done through identification those physiographic, socioeconomic environmental factors that best explain occurrence region. modeling process consisted a multi-step analysis based on multiple regression techniques. work, balance reached between objectivity mechanical methods, thoroughness entailed by an exhaustive selection variables. Due different availability input data, two models were built. One derived Portugal, Spain, France, Italy Greece, using initial set 32 independent A second reduced area (Spain, France Italy) these plus another 5 Both built same methodology, which search intermediate models. dependent variable used represent computed annual average occurrence. Statistically, performed satisfactorily. final fits first yielded R 2 values 0.60 0.71, respectively. Given condition variables considered, resulting can be support design policies long-term basis.