Stochastic modelling of the economic viability of on-farm co-digestion of pig manure and food waste in Ireland
作者： C. Dennehy , P.G. Lawlor , G.E. Gardiner , Y. Jiang , L. Shalloo
DOI: 10.1016/J.APENERGY.2017.08.101
关键词: Engineering 、 Digestate 、 Manure 、 Agricultural science 、 Tariff 、 Stochastic modelling 、 Environmental engineering 、 Biogas 、 Food waste 、 Renewable energy 、 Revenue
摘要: Abstract The majority of studies analysing the economic potential biogas systems utilise deterministic models to assess viability a system using fixed inputs. However, changes in market conditions can significantly affect plants, and need be accounted for. This study assessed undertaking on-farm anaerobic co-digestion food waste (FW) pig manure (PM) both stochastic modelling approaches. financial three plants sized treat PM generated from 521, 2607 5214 sow integrated units was assessed. Under current largest scenario modelled found unviable. Stochastic four key input variables (FW availability, renewable electricity tariff, gate fees digestate disposal costs) undertaken sensitivity project conditions. Due high likelihood accessing sufficient FW, smallest least sensitive any future its greater amounts FW than scenario, plant designed for farm had highest revenue generating under optimal conditions; however, it more availability smaller scenario. illustrates farm-based projects secure long-term, stable supplies co-substrates size plants’ capacity based on which drive methane production (and generation).
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