Effects of climate change on habitat and connectivity for populations of a vulnerable, endemic salamander in Iran

摘要: Abstract Habitat loss and fragmentation are among the biggest threats to amphibian populations anthropogenic climate change may exacerbate these. The response of Iran's amphibians is uncertain yet making an accurate prediction how species will respond critical for conservation. We assessed expected future scenarios before years 2050 2070 might influence geographic distribution habitat connectivity Lorestan Mountain Newt (Neurergus kaiseri). examined presence data (2010–2018) according environmental factors, created ensemble model suitability based on eight models (SDMs). Then, we used concept circuit theory estimate potential linkages between patches. applied calibrated quantified spatial assess range under four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) three general circulation (GCMs). Models using current predicted that 6.8% 267,609 km2 study area has suitable conditions species, but only about 7% these climatically landscapes covered by conservation areas. Temperature precipitation-related climatic variables made largest contribution model. Under projected conditions, found a decline 56–98% distributional shifts towards higher elevations 2070. Although there relatively good many patches today, predict areas available newt become increasingly fragmented scenarios. Our findings support hypothesis negatively habitats likely cause upward in elevation some species. Identifying potentially important different crucial steps planning Newt.