A bioeconomic model for estimating potential economic damages from a hypothetical Asian beetle introduced via future trade with Cuba

摘要: Although present United States (U.S.) policy restricts very nearly all Cuban commercial exports to the U.S., there is potential for restrictions be relaxed or perhaps even lifted at some point in future. In light of increased trade with Cuba, arrival invasive species such as bark beetles and ambrosia beetles—particularly from Asia via imports—could represent a serious threat southern U.S. forestlands. We develop bioeconomic model that estimates economic damages pine forests caused by hypothetical introduction an unknown Asian beetle future Cuba study period 2018–2050. examine individual policies combinations them could considered response this situation. Using pre-revolution level imports, absence “any management action” reach $2.44 million ($76,250/year). These reduced between $469,000 ($14,656/year) $1.02 ($31,875/year) if risk mitigation (forest thinning) were implemented. When prevention polices are baseline, (combined prevention) again observed dominant policy. The differences various respect relatively minor ranging $856,000 ($26,750/year) $1.30 ($40,635/year). findings should interpreted caution given limited amount empirical data assumptions, but they nonetheless can inform choices related trade, pests, Cuba.