Carbon budget estimation of a subarctic catchment using a dynamic ecosystem model at high spatial resolution

摘要: Abstract. A large amount of organic carbon is stored in high-latitude soils. substantial proportion this stock vulnerable and may decompose rapidly due to temperature increases that are already greater than the global average. It therefore crucial quantify understand exchange between atmosphere subarctic/arctic ecosystems. In paper, we combine an Arctic-enabled version process-based dynamic ecosystem model, LPJ-GUESS (version LPJG-WHyMe-TFM) with comprehensive observations terrestrial aquatic fluxes simulate long-term a subarctic catchment at 50 m resolution. Integrating observed from systems modeled across whole catchment, estimate area sink present will become even stronger by 2080, which mainly result projected densification birch forest its encroachment into tundra heath. However, magnitudes sinks very dependent on future atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Furthermore, comparisons warming potentials two simulations without increase since 1960 reveal increased methane emission peatland could double effects 2080 absence fertilization vegetation. This first model study temporal evolution catchment-level budget high spatial resolution, including both carbon. Though also highlights some limitations modeling responses climate change, such as system flux dynamics, nutrient limitation, herbivory other disturbances, expansion, our provides one approach resolve complexity cycling ecosystems while simultaneously pointing out key developments for capturing complex processes.