Landscape epidemiology of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans: reconciling data limitations and conservation urgency.

摘要: Starting in 2010, rapid-fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) population declines northwestern Europe heralded the emergence of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), a salamander-pathogenic chytrid fungus. Bsal poses an imminent threat to global diversity owing its wide host range, high pathogenicity, and long-term persistence ecosystems. While there is pressing need develop further research conservation actions, data limitations inherent recent pathogen obscure necessary insights into disease ecology. Here, we use hierarchical modeling framework describe landscape epidemiology outbreak sites light these methodological challenges. Using model selection machine learning, find that presence associated with humid relatively cool, stable climates. Outbreaks are generally located areas characterized by low heterogeneity steepness slope. We association between trail density, suggesting human-mediated spread may increase risk for spillover populations. then distribution show favorable conditions occur lowlands influenced North Sea, where increased survey effort needed determine how impacts local newt populations, but also hill- mountain ranges northeastern France lower half Germany. Finally, connectivity analyses suggest act as stepping stones southward. Our results provide initial insight regional environmental underlying epizootics, present updated invasibility predictions Europe, lead us discuss variety potential actions advance future mitigation efforts.