Spatial and Temporal Patterns of Terrorist Attacks by ETA 1970 to 2007

摘要: Rational choice perspectives maintain that seemingly irrational behavior on the part of terrorist organizations may nevertheless reflect strategic planning. In this paper we examine spatial and temporal patterns attacks by Spanish group ETA between 1970 2007. Our analysis is guided a public announcement in 1978 would shift from emphasizing Basque territory to instead launch more widely hopes exhausting government forcing it abandon territory. This suggests prior end were based mostly controlling region they hoped rule; after organization decided undertake prolonged war attrition. Accordingly, argue before was perpetrating control (attacking only within territories) diffusion provinces contagious (spreading contiguously). After proclamation, attack strategy shifted toward attrition areas outside likely diffuse hierarchically distant locations). As predicted, find moved strategy, subsequent significantly occur target non-adjacent regions (consistent with hierarchical diffusion). We also common when longer time elapsed (a consequence fact require resources planning) against Madrid unlikely be followed immediately or surrounding provinces. announced policy, maintained highly dispersed even during their period decline. Using information about where occurred could provide useful for policy makers countering groups like ETA.