Projection of Breast Cancer Burden due to Reproductive/Lifestyle Changes in Korean Women (2013-2030) Using an Age-Period-Cohort Model

摘要: PURPOSE The aim of this study was to estimate the burden breast cancer that can be attributed rapid lifestyle changes in South Korea 2013-2030. Materials and Methods An age-period-cohort model used incidence mortality. Global Burden Disease Study Group methodwas calculate years life lost lived with disability patients using a nationwide registry. population attributable riskswere calculated meta-analyzed relative risk ratios by assessing prevalence factors. RESULTS Women's reproductive/lifestyle changes, including advanced maternal age at first childbirth (from 37 85 disability-adjusted [DALYs] per 100,000 person-years), total period breastfeeding 22 46 DALYs obesity 61 alcohol consumption 19 39 oral contraceptive use 18 27 hormone replacement therapy 2 3 person-years) were identified as factors likely increase from 2013 2030. Approximately, 34.2% 44.3% could avoidable 2030 reduction CONCLUSION structure during last decade are expected strongly over time unless effectively modified.