Modelling Population Dynamics of Aphids and Their Natural Enemies

摘要: Aphids are serious pests of many agricultural crops. Therefore, a good understanding their population dynamics is vitally important for crop protection. There have been several attempts made to forecast the abundance aphids and develop expert systems help farmers optimize prophylactic measures minimize costs. The advisory systems, however, did not receive general acceptance disappointingly few forecasting in use. failure models predict aphid practical purposes due extremely wild oscillations numbers caused by intrinsic (size, fecundity, mortality, migration rate) external factors (weather, especially temperature). As consequence, predictions unlikely be robust enough reliable forecasting, mainly because they depend on course weather during season, which cannot predicted. Here we present critical review existing dynamics, examine biological assumptions that incorporated one latest metapopulation dynamics. We conclude natural enemies affect late but may an effect very early when colonies still small predators might able reduce these colonies. Empirical verification this weak, further experiments aspect predator prey should undertaken.