From cost-optimal to nearly Zero Energy Buildings’ renovation: Life Cycle Cost comparisons under alternative macroeconomic scenarios

摘要: Abstract Policies and financial framework aiming to encourage energy efficient building renovations should contribute “fill” the existing investment gap between Cost-Optimal (CO) solutions, that are more economically convenient, nearly Zero Energy (nZE) which have lower consumption, in order make convenient investors choose options. This depends on long-term expected value volatility of several interdependent macroeconomic variables. However, standardized LCC methods used for CO assessments disregard uncertainty interdependence affecting these variables and, consequently, misrepresent impact associated risk economic convenience. The present work aims model alternative macro-economic scenarios where carry out a “stochastic” predetermined renovation provide useful effective decision tool LCC, especially evaluate whether how much future scenario could influence nZE refurbishment solution. At this aim, we estimated Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) models four scenarios, ranging from “regular growth” case extreme conditions as experienced by major western economies last decades, based real data, i.e. observed time series. modelling its relation stochastic is main result novelty compared conventional approach adopted most literature suggested international regulations standards. method illustrated through study, demonstrates potential developed methodology providing interesting informative results nature policy fill address environmental challenge sector, may vary depending context. mainly lies possibility highlight specific convenience taking an under risk-aversion be jeopardised (augmented), thus requiring stronger (weaker) compensating public support.