Assessing potential effects of land use and climate change on mammal distributions in northern Thailand

作者: Yongyut Trisurat , Budsabong Kanchanasaka , Holger Kreft

DOI: 10.1071/WR14171

关键词: Species distributionGeographyHabitatEcologyBiodiversityHabitat destructionDeforestationClimate changeSpecies richnessEffects of global warming

摘要: Context Tropical ecosystems are widely recognised for their high species richness and outstanding concentrations of rare endemic species. Previous studies either focussed on the effects deforestation or climate change, whereas combined these two major threats limited. Aims This research aimed to model current future distributions medium- large-sized mammal basis different land-use climate-change scenarios in 2050 assess whether predicted change greater than those drivers individual driver. Methods The present article demonstrates a method combining nationwide wildlife-inventory data, spatially explicit species-distribution models, bioclimatic variables, other biophysical factors human disturbance map role protected areas conservation planning. Key results Seventeen were selected modelling. Most lose suitable habitat if remaining forest cover declines from level 57% 50% 2050. stronger change. When combined, impacts more severe. would average shift distribution was 40%. Conclusions positive only few negative most Current centres mammal-species large contiguous forests contribution existing proposed protecting focal will increase 73% 80% across all scenarios. Implications advances understanding ecology 17 with relevance that affect at landscape scale. In addition, demonstrated models effective means contribute protection

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