How Important Are Resistance, Dispersal Ability, Population Density and Mortality in Temporally Dynamic Simulations of Population Connectivity? A Case Study of Tigers in Southeast Asia

摘要: Development of landscape connectivity and spatial population models is challenging, given the uncertainty parameters sensitivity to factors their interactions over time. Using spatially temporally explicit simulations, we evaluate distribution, abundance tigers in Southeast Asia variations resistance surface, dispersal ability, density mortality. Utilizing a dynamic cumulative resistant kernel approach, tested (1) effects on predicted size, distribution connectivity, (2) displacement divergence scenarios across timesteps. We evaluated effect varying levels simulated population, extent, sum nine timesteps, producing 24,300 simulations. demonstrate that range shifts, are highly sensitive parameter values with significant relative strength by timestep. Dispersal mortality risk interaction dominated predictions. Further, had intermediate effects, relatively low impacts, mitigation linear barriers (highways) via lowered little effect. Results relevant regional, long-term tiger management, providing insight into potential growth expansion global conservation priority.