The Foot-and-Mouth Epidemic in Great Britain: Pattern of Spread and Impact of Interventions
作者： Neil M Ferguson , Christl A Donnelly , Roy M Anderson
关键词: Foot-and-mouth disease 、 Quarantine 、 Foot (unit) 、 Virology 、 Culling 、 Disease transmission 、 Demography 、 Disease reservoir 、 Psychological intervention 、 Geography 、 Vaccination 、 Multidisciplinary
摘要: We present an analysis of the current foot-and-mouth disease epidemic in Great Britain over first 2 months spread virus. The net transmission potential pathogen and increasing impact control measures are estimated course to date. These results used parameterize a mathematical model that captures differing spatial contact patterns between farms before after imposition movement restrictions. is make predictions future incidence simulate additional strategies. Hastening slaughter animals with suspected infection predicted slow epidemic, but more drastic action, such as "ring" culling or vaccination around foci, necessary for rapid control. Culling be effective than vaccination.
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