Simulated future sea-level rise due to glacier melt based on regionally and seasonally resolved temperature changes

摘要: Climate change is expected over the next century as a result of anthropogenic emissions greenhouse gases and aerosols into atmosphere, global average sea level will consequently rise. Estimates1 indicate that by 2100 be about 500 mm higher than today warming, with thermal expansion water accounting for half this The melting glaciers ice sheets contribute much remainder. We present an improved calculation glacier melt, which uses temperature patterns generated coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model2,3 inputs to seasonally regionally differentiated model4,5. Under specified greenhouse-gas sulphate-aerosol forcings, our model predicts melt equivalent 132 mm sea-level rise occur period 1990–2100, further 76 mm from Greenland sheet. These figures fall within range previous estimates made using simpler models1; advantage approach we take account effects regional seasonal variations. Our inclusion these increases calculated 20%.