Conservation planning under climate change : Toward accounting for uncertainty in predicted species distributions to increase confidence in conservation investments in space and time

摘要: Climate warming challenges our approach to building systems of protected areas because it is likely drive accelerating shifts in species distributions, and the projections those future distributions are uncertain. There several important sources uncertainty intrinsic using occurrence for reserve system design including number occurrences captured by any selection solution, arising from different approaches used fit predictive models. Here we present predicted Iberian herptiles analyze how dynamics may affect decisions about resource allocation conservation space time. We identified priority maximizing coverage current (2020 2080) 65 species, under “Mild” “Severe” uncertainty. Next, applied a return-on-investment analysis quantify make explicit trade-offs between investing selected when optimizing times with levels. Areas as every time frame level were ones considered be robust climate adaptation investments, included chiefly already areas. only good candidates investment if extra resources available mainly located northern Iberia. However, case should not completely disregarded they become climatic refugia some species. Our study provides an objective methodology deliver “no regrets” investments.