What Drives the NAIRU? Evidence from a Panel of OECD Countries

摘要: This paper analyses the determinants of structural unemployment rates in a two-stage approach. First, time-varying NAIRUs are estimated for panel OECD economies on basis Phillips curve equations using Kalman filter techniques. In second stage, regressed on selected policy and institutional variables. As predicted by theoretical wage-setting/price-setting models, the level tax wedge user cost capital found to be important drivers structural unemployment. Consistent with earlier studies, product market regulation, union density and the benefit replacement rate also play an role explaining changes the NAIRU although there is considerable variation estimates across countries. Nonetheless, set of structural variables provides reasonable explanation NAIRU dynamics over period 1978-2003, even though recent decreases better explained than surge.