Response of the San Andreas fault to the 1983 Coalinga-Nuñez earthquakes: An application of interaction-based probabilities for Parkfield

摘要: (1) The Parkfield-Cholame section of the San Andreas fault, site an unfulfilled earthquake forecast in 1985, is best monitored world's most closely watched fault. In 1983, M = 6.5 Coalinga and 6.0 Nunez events struck 25 km northeast Parkfield. Seismicity rates climbed for 18 months along creeping north Parkfield dropped 6 years locked to south. Right-lateral creep also slowed or reversed from Here we calculate that sequence increased shear Coulomb stress on section, causing rate small shocks rise until added was shed by additional slip. However, 1983 decreased segment, surface seismicity drop. We use these observations cast likelihood a into interaction-based probability, which includes both renewal following 1966 transfer events. 10-year probability � 22% (from 54 ± 42 23%) did not recover about 1991, when resumed. Our analysis may thus explain why strike 1980s, but it absent 1990s. 58 17% during 2001- 2011. INDEX TERMS: 7223 Seismology: Seismic hazard assessment prediction; 7230 seismotectonics; 7260 Theory modeling; KEYWORDS: earthquake, Parkfield, change,