Simulated hydroclimatic impacts of projected Brazilian sugarcane expansion

摘要: [1] Sugarcane area is currently expanding in Brazil, largely response to domestic and international demand for sugar-based ethanol. To investigate the potential hydroclimatic impacts of future expansion, a regional climate model used simulate 5 years scenario which cerrado cropland areas (~1.1E6 km2) within south-central Brazil are converted sugarcane. Results indicate cooling up ~1.0°C during peak growing season, mainly as result increased albedo sugarcane relative previous landscape. After harvest, warming similar magnitude occurs from significant decline evapotranspiration repartitioning toward greater sensible heating. Overall, annual temperature changes large-scale conversion expected be small because offsetting reductions net radiation absorption evapotranspiration. The water flux land atmosphere implies reduction precipitation, consistent with progressively decreasing simulated average rainfall study period, upon However, were not robust across three ensemble members. results suggest that expansion will drastically alter energy or balance, but could important local seasonal effects.