The Impact of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic on Orphanhood Probabilities and Kinship Structure in Zimbabwe

摘要: Author(s): Zagheni, Emilio | Advisor(s): Wachter, Kenneth W Abstract: This dissertation addresses the problem of estimating and projecting orphanhood prevalence kinship resources available to orphans in Zimbabwe, one countries hit hardest by HIV/AIDS epidemic. The extended family has been recognized as a major safety net against negative consequences generalized epidemic sub-Saharan Africa. However, little is known about effect on quantity children. study contributes existing literature providing quantitative assessment material basis traditional kin relations Zimbabwe. An approach based formal demographic methods used evaluate maternal orphanhood, for period 1980-2050. model, which informed United Nations estimates projections rates, provides insights process orphans' generation. One main results that number age group 0-17 years expected not decline until around 2030. related fact transition cumulative with age, there lag between peak adult HIV AIDS-related prevalence. A microsimulation whose core relies SOCSIM, estimate quantities analytical expressions are unmanageable, such double orphans. model calibrated Zimbabwean setting, using data from Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) Nations. simulation show transition, 1990 2010, fairly high low levels young children proportion without any living grandparents will increase 2030 then decrease. trend shift responsibility uncles aunts. On average, aunts per orphan decreasing 1980 but it progressively during next decades. Methodologically, deals calibration statistical inference stochastic microsimulations. Traditional forms parameter tuning formalized within Bayesian framework. does provide definite answer outputs first contribution towards development more comprehensive methodology assess uncertainty field forecasting. stress imposed relations. research raises questions social changes structure, strategies needed address lack care context