Aggregate effects of AIDS on *development

摘要: To explore the quantitative implications that AIDS has for development path of Sub- Saharan African economies, I extend a standard theory economic reproduces process industrialization, Hansen and Prescott (2002), with population model relates age distribution each period to preceding one via fertility process, mortality an aging process. This captures main channels through which AIDS, raising rates young adults lowering rates, affects populations over time: (i) reshapes population, thinning ranks working-age groups (the share children old per worker raises by as much 20-25% in highly infected countries), (ii) reduces growth (by .08% percentage point HIV prevalence), (iii) life expectancy 15-20 years). In addition, (iv) individual labor efficiency sick aggregate loss 0.3% prevalence. When incorporate epidemic (i)-(iv) into economy calibrated country unaffected find capita income 12% at peak epidemic. also slows down transition from agriculture industry about century most countries.