Accounting for Imperfect Detection Is Critical for Inferring Marine Turtle Nesting Population Trends

摘要: Assessments of population trends based on time-series counts individuals are complicated by imperfect detection, which can lead to serious misinterpretations data. Population threatened marine turtles worldwide usually nests or nesting females. We analyze 39 years nest-count, female-count, and capture-mark-recapture (CMR) data for loggerhead (Caretta caretta) Wassaw Island, Georgia, USA. Annual females, not corrected yield significant, positive in abundance. However, multistate open robust design modeling CMR that accounts changes detection reveals the annual abundance females has remained essentially constant over 39-year period. The dichotomy could result from improvements surveys increased within-season nest-site fidelity either would increase probability. For first time a turtle population, we compare results trend analyses do account demonstrate potential erroneous conclusions. Past assessments exclusively count should be interpreted with caution re-evaluated when possible. These concerns apply equally all species detection.