The Current Account Sustainability of European Transition Economies

作者: Juan Carlos Cuestas

DOI: 10.1111/J.1468-5965.2012.02309.X

关键词: Current accountInvestment (macroeconomics)DebtMacroeconomicsEconomyGross domestic productEastern europeanEconomic and monetary unionEconomicsDefaultNational savings

摘要: This article presents an analysis of the sustainability current accounts a group central and eastern European countries. Given link between national savings (public private) investment, account may yield instabilities in fundamental macroeconomic variables. Hence, this is paramount importance given 2008–11 debt crises faced by many economies, addition new countries to economic monetary union. By means unit root tests fractional integration it shown that, general, ratio gross domestic product stationary mean reverting process. However, some cases, shocks tend have long-lasting effects, implying that there no evidence potential default

参考文章(48)
Luis A. Gil-Alana, Juan Carlos Cuestas, Paolo Jose Regis, On the changes in the sustainability of European external debt: what have we learned Research Papers in Economics. ,(2014)
Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, Assaf Razin, Current-Account Sustainability ,(1996)
Theodore Panagiotidis, Mark J. Holmes, COINTEGRATION AND ASYMMETRIC ADJUSTMENT: SOME NEW EVIDENCE CONCERNING THE BEHAVIOUR OF THE US CURRENT ACCOUNT Research Papers in Economics. ,(2009)
Denis Kwiatkowski, Peter C.B. Phillips, Peter Schmidt, Yongcheol Shin, Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root: How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root? Journal of Econometrics. ,vol. 54, pp. 159- 178 ,(1992) , 10.1016/0304-4076(92)90104-Y
Nouriel Roubini, Paul Wachtel, Current-Account Sustainability in Transition Economies Social Science Research Network. pp. 19- 93 ,(1999) , 10.1007/978-0-585-31346-7_2
Dongin Lee, Peter Schmidt, On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives Journal of Econometrics. ,vol. 73, pp. 285- 302 ,(1996) , 10.1016/0304-4076(95)01741-0
G. S. Maddala, Shaowen Wu, A Comparative Study of Unit Root Tests with Panel Data and a New Simple Test Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. ,vol. 61, pp. 631- 652 ,(1999) , 10.1111/1468-0084.0610S1631
Uwe Hassler, Jürgen Wolters, On the power of unit root tests against fractional alternatives Economics Letters. ,vol. 45, pp. 1- 5 ,(1994) , 10.1016/0165-1765(94)90049-3
John Geweke, Susan Porter-Hudak, THE ESTIMATION AND APPLICATION OF LONG MEMORY TIME SERIES MODELS Journal of Time Series Analysis. ,vol. 4, pp. 221- 238 ,(1983) , 10.1111/J.1467-9892.1983.TB00371.X
In Choi, Unit root tests for panel data Journal of International Money and Finance. ,vol. 20, pp. 249- 272 ,(2001) , 10.1016/S0261-5606(00)00048-6