Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis

摘要: Abstract Cross-Impact methods are standard tools of the scenario technique. They provide a number structured processes for deduction plausible developments future in form rough scenarios and based on expert judgments about systemic interactions. mostly used analytical tasks which do not allow use theory-based computational models due to their disciplinary heterogeneity relevance “soft” system knowledge, but other hand too complex purely argumentative systems analysis. The essentials new approach (Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, CIB) outlined; it is high methodological flexibility especially suitable discourses its transparent logic. Due mathematical qualities also particularly well suited integration calculable parts. An application CIB project generation electricity climate protection described. For theoretical foundation method relations theory, theory dynamic systems, discussed. This explicates that correspond solutions slowly time-varying pair-force systems.