Out‐of‐sample predictions from plant–insect food webs: robustness to missing and erroneous trophic interaction records

作者: Ian S. Pearse , Florian Altermatt

DOI: 10.1890/14-1463.1

关键词: EcologyTrophic levelConstraint (information theory)Robustness (computer science)Food chainField (computer science)Predictive powerBiologyOut of sampleModelling methods

摘要: With increasing biotic introductions, there is a great need for predictive tools to anticipate which new trophic interactions will develop and not. Phylogenetic constraint of in both native novel food webs can make some predictable. However, many are sparsely sampled, or may include inaccurate interactions. In such cases, it unclear whether modeling methods still useful We ran bootstrap simulations host-use models on Lepidoptera-plant data set remove records add erroneous order observe the effect missing prediction with plants. found that model was robust large amount interaction records, but lost power addition relatively few records. The loss due inaccuracy estimating phylogenetic distance between hosts. Removal proportionally their encounter frequency field had little power. Host-use have immediate value predicting from large, sampled databases

参考文章(49)
Jennifer A. Dunne, The Network Structure of Food Webs ,(2005)
Wojtek J. Krzanowski, David J. Hand, ROC Curves for Continuous Data ,(2009)
E Martínez-Meyer, RP Anderson, MB Araújo, J Soberon, AT Peterson, RG Pearson, M Nakamura, Ecological Niches and Geographic Distributions ,(2011)
Walter Durka, Stefan G. Michalski, Daphne: a dated phylogeny of a large European flora for phylogenetically informed ecological analyses Ecology. ,vol. 93, pp. 2297- 2297 ,(2012) , 10.1890/12-0743.1
Frode Ødegaard, Ola H. Diserud, Kjartan Østbye, The importance of plant relatedness for host utilization among phytophagous insects Ecology Letters. ,vol. 8, pp. 612- 617 ,(2005) , 10.1111/J.1461-0248.2005.00758.X
Ian S. Pearse, Florian Altermatt, Extinction cascades partially estimate herbivore losses in a complete Lepidoptera–plant food web Ecology. ,vol. 94, pp. 1785- 1794 ,(2013) , 10.1890/12-1075.1
José M Gómez, Miguel Verdú, Francisco Perfectti, None, Ecological interactions are evolutionarily conserved across the entire tree of life Nature. ,vol. 465, pp. 918- 921 ,(2010) , 10.1038/NATURE09113
Gaylord A Desurmont, Ian S Pearse, Alien plants versus alien herbivores: does it matter who is non-native in a novel trophic interaction? Current opinion in insect science. ,vol. 2, pp. 20- 25 ,(2014) , 10.1016/J.COIS.2014.06.006