Reply to Grubler and Pachauri: Developing national obligations from individual emissions

摘要: We thank Grubler and Pachauri (1) for a careful reading of our PNAS article (2). In this response, we would like to further discuss their three main objections provide some additional explanation. Grubler criticize first order assumption no change in inequality over time at the regional level, suggesting—after Kuznets—that country's grows then falls with economic development. Unfortunately, empirical evidence Kuznets curve hypothesis is extremely weak has been disputed several recent papers (3, 4). Only World Bank, knowledge, published projections income distributions (5), these are very uncertain. Thus, took conservative approach work. Note that, contrary Pachauri, global distribution indeed varies time, because sums EIA's 16 regions, each its separately projected emissions growth. Grubler simplifying constant elasticity between country group. Our article's supporting information reports extensive investigation variable (though uniform) relating quantifies robustness findings. The across groups standard literature tested works, including ones coauthored by (6). Finally, share concern, noted paper, that high tail Indian household consumption hidden distribution. Projected per capita CO2 India 2030 2.2 tons, central interest paper begins five times value. authors calling attention Business Council projects 56 million private vehicles 2030. A more sophisticated model consumers take such into account. larger mitigation assignment might result, but implications be minimal. None affects two major messages paper. suggest refocus on individuals rather than national averages as path responsibilities mitigating climate where every participates. And show meeting basic energy needs can accommodated via fossil-carbon sources, convenient, limited solution problem. We view any politically useful scheme must simple. Nonetheless, need frameworks address concerns about equity deal dynamic process sharing burden among countries rapidly changing world. believe provides tool thinking issues various grow different rates.