EXPLAINING CURRENCY CRISES
作者： Gerardo Esquivel , Felipe Larrain
DOI: 10.2139/SSRN.107725
关键词: Current account 、 Currency 、 Probit model 、 Foreign-exchange reserves 、 Economics 、 Monetary economics 、 Foreign exchange risk 、 Exchange rate 、 Devaluation 、 Terms of trade
摘要: This paper examines the determinants of currency crises with a panel annual dataset for 30 countries between 1975 and 1996. We estimate probit model random effects, find that high rates seignorage, current account imbalances, real exchange rate misalignment, low foreign reserves, negative terms trade shocks, poor growth performance, measure regional contagion all have significant power to explain presence in our sample. In general, results can be interpreted as supporting both first second-generation models crises. Various robustness tests confirm validity these results. also an important predictable component. Using benchmark regression we are able predict correctly majority occurred within
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