Positively interacting strains that circulate in a network structured population induce cycling epidemics of Mycoplasma Pneumoniae

摘要: In many countries Mycoplasma pneumoniae (MP) epidemics last approximately one to two years and occur every three seven years. Poor understanding of the drivers recurrent MP limits predictability dynamic responses outbreak. Taking into account network structured contacts among people co-circulating strains MP, we propose a multi-strain SIRS model where different interact during re-infection within secondary infection. Simulations show that although strain interactions network-mediated spatial correlations are separate mechanisms for cycling, each requires very restricted parameter values such as strong contacts, respectively. When both work collectively, become feasible plausible ranges parameters. This indicates positively interacting co-circulate induce periodicity dominant shift in observed incidence.