Estimating the risk of cattle exposure to tuberculosis posed by wild deer relative to badgers in England and Wales.

摘要: Wild deer populations in Great Britain are expanding range and probably numbers, relatively high prevalence of bovine tuberculosis (bTB, caused by infection with Mycobacterium bovis) occurs locally parts southwest England. To evaluate the M. bovis exposure risk posed to cattle wild relative badgers England Wales, we constructed parameterized a quantitative model use information from literature (on densities, activity patterns, bTB epidemiology, pathology) contemporary data on deer, cattle, badger (Meles meles) distribution abundance. The median score for each four species studied—red (Cervus elaphus), fallow (Dama dama), roe (Capreolus capreolus) muntjac (Muntiacus reevesi)—was lower than unity (the set badgers, putative main wildlife reservoir Wales). However, 95th percentiles associated estimates were large, upper limits all exceeded unity. Although risks at pasture likely be those across most areas Wales where affected because these coincide high-density but not populations, predict presence localized may considerable. Moreover, wherever infected, additive badgers. There considerable knowledge gaps available parameterization generally low quality variability, consequently output subject some uncertainty. Improved proportion time that spend pasture, likelihood magnitude excretion, local densities appear important improving this system.