Seasonal-to-interannual forecasting of tropical indian ocean sea surface temperature anomalies : Potential predictability and barriers

摘要: Abstract Whether seasonally phased-locked persistence and predictability barriers, similar to the boreal spring barriers found for El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), exist tropical Indian Ocean sector climate is investigated using observations hindcasts from two coupled ocean–atmosphere dynamical ensemble forecast systems: National Centers Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Coupled Forecast System (CFS) 1990–2003, NASA Seasonal-to-Interannual Project (NSIPP) system 1993–2002. The potential of also assessed under “perfect model/ensemble” assumption. Lagged correlations indices calculated over east west poles dipole mode (IDM) index show weak sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) in at both poles, but major decline correlation pole occurs midwinter all start months with an almost immediate recovery, albeit negative correlation...