The Role of Sea Ice Thickness Distribution in the Arctic Sea Ice Potential Predictability: A Diagnostic Approach with a Coupled GCM

摘要: AbstractThe intrinsic seasonal predictability of Arctic sea ice is investigated in a 400-yr-long preindustrial simulation performed with the Centre National de Recherches Meteorologiques Coupled Global Climate Model, version 3.3 (CNRM-CM3.3). The skill several predictors pan-Arctic area was quantified: itself, volume, and some areal built from subgrid thickness distribution (ITD). Sea provides potential about 3 months, which consistent previous studies using model observation data. volume predictive for winter prediction weak. Nevertheless, there higher to predict September June anomaly than anomaly. Using ITD-based predictors, two “regimes” were highlighted. first one, “persistence regime,” applies winter/early spring predictability. c...