LIKELIHOOD OF ANCESTOR STATES IN ADAPTIVE RADIATION

摘要: Theories of ecological diversification make predictions about the timing and ordering character state changes through history. These theories are testable by "reconstructing" ancestor states using phylogenetic trees measurements contemporary species. Here we use maximum likelihood to estimate evaluate accuracy reconstructions. We present likelihoods discrete derive probability distributions for continuous ancestral traits. The methods applied several examples: diets Darwin's finches; origin inquilinism in gall wasps; microhabitat partitioning body size evolution scrubwrens; digestive enzyme artiodactyl mammals; a sexually selected male trait, sword, platies swordtails; specialization Anolis lizards. When between rare, maximum-likelihood results similar parsimony estimates. In this case estimates is often high, with exception some nodes deep tree. If change frequent then reconstructions highly uncertain, especially distant ancestors. Ancestor traits typically uncertain. conclude that measures uncertainty useful should always be provided, despite simplistic assumptions probabilistic models underlie them. too reconstruction abandoned favor approaches fit different trait species data trees, taking into account range permitted data.