Studying dynamics of the HIV epidemic: population-based data compared with sentinel surveillance in Zambia.

摘要: Assessments of the dynamics HIV/AIDS epidemic in Africa are based largely on sentinel surveillance antenatal clinic (ANC) attenders. The validity use this key group terms HIV prevalence estimation was evaluated a population-based survey 4195 Zambian adults recruited through stratified random cluster sampling urban Lusaka and rural Mposhi district 1995-96. carried out catchment populations clinics used for national surveillance. Overall ANC tended to underestimate general population but differences were not statistically significant either or area. In adjusted overall among attenders 24.4% compared with 26.0% survey. estimates 12.5% 16.4% respectively. Comparison age-specific prevalences indicated overestimated infection teenagers underestimated those aged 30 years over. Prevalence rates increased steeply by age at comparable increment levels women both samples while men had stable age. These findings suggest that extrapolations from data may indeed produce distorted picture current large. Women higher educational attainment underrepresented surveys. pregnancy birth HIV-negative HIV-positive is another potential source bias as high rate clients 18-19 (66% 34% women). Information single year level residence should be collected systems allow appropriate stratification. Since young people most reliable marker changes incidence sample size increases 15-19 considered.