How to quantify long-term changes in coastal sea storminess?

摘要: Abstract The paper discusses various aspects of local and regional storminess, as well challenges in quantifying its tendencies the eastern section Baltic Sea. study is based on long-term data sets, such wind sea level observation from coastal stations tide gauges Estonia (1899–2013). It also wave hindcasts (1966–2013), reconstructions shoreline changes, limitations possible shortcomings each sets. Mostly located westerly exposed windward coast semi-enclosed Sea, case area sensitive to storm climate changes. Different manifestations storminess delivered somewhat specific results. When analyzed together, first principal component was connected intensity cyclonic activity along polar front had relatively high stages 1920s–1940s, 1980s–1990s probably 2010. second carried a more random imprint. Appearing independently NAO or general “storminess” phases, most notable event-driven extremes record were related this component. Based our data, we cannot confirm existence any increasing trends for storminess. Wherever increase exists, it has occurred winter-time accompanied by shift stormy season autumn winter. spatially contrasting results northerly coasts reflect corresponding variations wind, which are changes track above northern Europe poleward cyclones' trajectories.