An interpretation of Australian rainfall projections
作者： G. Shi , J. Ribbe , W. Cai , T. Cowan
DOI: 10.1029/2007GL032436
关键词: Winter rainfall 、 Trend surface analysis 、 Indian ocean 、 Indian Ocean Dipole 、 Climatology 、 Climate model 、 East coast 、 Environmental science 、 Antarctic oscillation 、 Pacific ocean
摘要: [1] The majority of climate models project a winter rainfall reduction over south-eastern Australia (SEA), while some show tendency for summer increase. The dynamics these changes are not clear. Using outputs from model, we that increase is consistent with large Tasman Sea warming promoting convection, and an upward trend the Southern Annular Mode (SAM) onshore flows; processes dominate decrease El Nino-like pattern. In winter, similar effects SAM operate along Australia's east coast, however, rain-reducing impact Indian Ocean Dipole-like pattern dominates. both seasons, causes southern Australia. Summer north-western projected to decrease, due unrealistic relationship Nino-Southern Oscillation. Possible uncertainties discussed.
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