Swanson's 30-40-30 rule

摘要: Evaluation of the possible range reserves associated with a prospect is key part risk taking in hydrocarbon exploration. The challenge presenting geologically models for reserve estimates addressed using Swanson's 30-40-30 rule. rule defines mean as 0.3 P 10 + 0.4 50 90, and provides good approximation to values modestly skewed distributions. Pragmatic mathematical justifications this are given. Applications historical field size distribution specific evaluation demonstrate its efficacy handling routine problems exploration, particular reference use lognormal distribution. Andrew Hurst received Ph.D. geology from University Reading 1980. From 1981 until 1990, he worked Statoil, Norway, petroleum technology group. 1990 1992, was employed an exploration geologist by Unocal UK. In assumed new Shell Chair Production Geoscience at Aberdeen University. His main research interest reservoir characterization, particularly turbidite reservoirs. He chief editor Petroleum .Gary Brown B.Sc. degree (1989) mathematics (1995) statistics Birmingham. 1996 1999 fellow Aberdeen, where also ran internal external statistical consultancy service. multivariate regression, especially diagnostics. Since has been methodologist Office National Statistics. Roy Swanson B.S. (1953) Pittsburgh M.S. (1955) Michigan State Exxon Corporation first geophysicist Wyoming, Colorado, Venezuela then New Orleans. 1969, entered area economics became coordinator Inland Exploration analysis Exxon. retired 1992.