A multivariate model to predict caries increment in Montreal children aged 5 years.

摘要: A study was carried out in Montreal (Canada) to predict caries development over the period of one year primary teeth kindergarten children (mean age 5 years 8 months +/- 4 months) living a non-fluoridated area. The 302 were examined at school on two occasions, apart. At first examination selected predictors collected: experience, salivary S. mutans and lactobacilli, buffer capacity, debris index, parents' education, fluoride consumption family structure (one or parents). Regression analysis performed select significant factors. total 143 developed new period; mean increment for whole group 2.1 dmfs. Sensitivity (Sn) specificity (Sp) calculated each predictor final model. best model comprised only factors, experience lactobacillus. This could identify 81.8 per cent who would develop during next 12 77.4 those not (Sp). Among single alone reached 78.3 sensitivity specificity. None other predictors, except very good predicting year.