Track Patterns of Landfalling and Coastal Tropical Cyclones in the Atlantic Basin, Their Relationship with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Potential Effect of Global Warming

摘要: Even though the degree of damage inflicted by North Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) is highly dependent upon track location and proximity to land, spatial characteristics TCs are generally understudied. We investigated relationships between landfall locations track patterns all Cape Verde-type landfalling coastal that have affected the continental coastline western Atlantic Basin region for the period 1851-2008. The recurvature these increases progressively from Central America/Caribbean coast (CA) through Gulf of Mexico (GOM), Florida peninsula (FLOR), (ATL) coasts. date (month) occurrence shows similar increases GOM ATL. These patterns location, pattern, date generally follow intra-seasonal movement intensity variations Bermuda High (BH), as represented increasing Oscillation (NAO) index values CA FLOR. Analysis suggests is primarily controlled two factors: amplitude the longitude at which begins to dominate shape. Both these important steering controls predominantly influenced strength and position BH, with and/or more northeasterly position of BH progressively driving America Gulf of Mexico seaboard out open sea. paleorecord suggests that latitudinal position exerts an important control over the location hurricane along on millennial time scales. This global warming may result in a northern shift in TC tracks increased frequency landfalls locations.