Two techniques for assessment of subjective probability distributions — An experimental study☆

摘要: Abstract Subjects were asked to assess their subjective probability distributions for unknown parameters of Bernoulli processes. The processes generated by random devices like, instance, irregular dice. assessments based on two assessment techniques. One the median and quartiles distributions, other impact four hypothetical samples. main purpose study was resulting sets distributions. results show substantial differences between using techniques but these decreased as experiment progressed.