Risk Assessment and Decision Analysis with Bayesian Networks

摘要: Although many Bayesian Network (BN) applications are now in everyday use, BNs have not yet achieved mainstream penetration. Focusing on practical real-world problem solving and model building, as opposed to algorithms theory, Risk Assessment Decision Analysis with Networks explains how incorporate knowledge data develop use (Bayesian) causal models of risk that provide powerful insights better decision making. Provides all tools necessary build run realistic network Supplies extensive example based real assessment problems a wide range application domains provided; for example, finance, safety, systems reliability, law, more Introduces mathematics, probability, statistics needed The book first establishes the basics risk, building using BN models, then goes into detailed applications. underlying appear appendices rather than main text since there is no need understand them models. Keeping body free intimidating provides pragmatic advice about ensure built efficiently. A dedicated website, www.BayesianRisk.com, contains executable versions described, exercises worked solutions chapters, PowerPoint slides, numerous other resources, downloadable copy AgenaRisk software.