Stochastic pert networks: OP diagrams, critical paths and the project completion time

摘要: Abstract Fisher and Goldstein [5–7] have recently derived closed form expressions for the expectation, variance distribution of project completion time stochastic PERT networks when durations tasks in network can be written as mutually independent, probability mixtures general-gamma [8] random variables (a more general result is described [9]). In this article, it shown that their methods also used to obtain a particular path critical [6]. One possible criticism approach computation both summary characteristics reaction require translation into an OP (Order-of-ftocessing) diagram. Currently, only done manually, very laborious process even moderately complex networks. algorithm developed which generate diagram given network. The has been implemented FORTRAN. Once constructed, requires simple matrix operations are independent variables. More calculations required other distributions task involved.