Comparing the impacts of mitigation versus non-intervention scenarios on future temperature and precipitation extremes in the HadGEM2 climate model

摘要: [1] Although international climate change negotiations focus on global mean temperature targets, it is also important to assess the impact of emission scenarios extremes at and regional scale. This paper examines how precipitation indices are projected around globe during 21st Century under an aggressive mitigation scenario in United Kingdom Met Office Hadley Centre HadGEM2-AO coupled model, these changes might differ from a mid-range non-intervention scenario. Even strategy there increases warm scale up mid-21st Century, tend follow similar trajectory associated with each Changes precipitation-related be more variable. There differences direction appears that aerosol forcing could have influence. The regions which benefit most vary depending index being considered, but general absolute reduced northern midlatitudes, whereas for frequency based South America, parts USA, Africa Asia see largest avoided increases. For indices, America sees consistent signal toward drying conditions, along Mediterranean Russia central Asia.