Mapping the tephra fallout risk: an example from Vesuvius, Italy

摘要: THE goal of evaluating the risks related to reactivation a quiescent volcano requires reconstructions eruptive history volcano, construction therefrom behavioural model so as define 'maximum expected event9 and subsequent quantitative models allowing reliable simulation such an event be set up hazard risk maps developed. We have followed this approach infer size character explosive eruption Vesuvius after 45-year rest period1,2, we used numerical model, tested on recent Mount St Helens in AD 79 3,4, simulate tephra transport fallout. By combining fallout with statistical analysis wind regime density urban settlement, were able assess quantitatively risk.